Chances are high Khan will win the London Mayor’s victory – however bettors put ex-Wall Road dealer Rose subsequent


The likelihood of Sadiq Khan winning the title of Mayor of London for another term is far from certain, according to online retailers, despite unlikely candidates battling for second place.

Khan’s chances of an overall victory in the elections on May 6th are over 98%, as the chances of winning on the Smarkets trading platform one day before the vote showed.

Brian Rose, a candidate for his own London Real party who has made headlines over his past association with controversial figures like David Icke and for breaking the lockdown rules, is the second most likely winner at 1.67% – although his odds were 2 % at 11 a.m. BST.

“Rose traded up to 15% once to win overall, but our betting market, whether it gets more or less than 2% of the vote in the first round, is practically a mistake – it seems like its campaign could come up with high Spending fades into insignificance, “Smarkets political analyst Patrick Flynn told Financial News.

This is despite his place in traditional polls, where Rose, a former Wall Street stockbroker, ranks sixth. In the May 4th YouGov data, Khan had a roughly 43% chance of winning, followed by conservative candidate Shaun Bailey at 31%.

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In the Smarkets betting odds, Bailey is in third place with a 1.25% chance of winning. Actor and independent contestant Laurence Fox rounded out the top 4 and led the remaining nine London decisions with 0.01%.

Mainstream political party candidates like Sian Berry from the Green Party and Luisa Porritt from the Liberal Democrats also have a 0.01% chance of winning the election outright. Official polls had Berry and Porritt at 10% and 5%, respectively.

On Smarkets, more than £ 7.5m was traded in the direct winners market, which, according to the platform, was the second largest political market ever.

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In a betting market where the candidate may get the most votes in second place, Bailey stormed forward with 97.1%. In a third-place market with votes, Berry and Porritt were head to head with 58.8% and 43.9% respectively.

Flynn said that should Khan win as expected, once he is re-elected, his main focus will be on what London looks like after Covid, with the city “potentially changing forever, especially in housing”.

“With millions of people working from home over the past year, many businesses (including Smarkets) can adjust to a new normal of working from home, which will almost certainly lead some Londoners to leave the city for cheaper housing, themselves if so, the job is nominally in London, ”said Flynn.

“The mayor’s promise to campaign for rental controls, which I suspect are almost universally popular in London, could also transform the real estate market. With more cash in their pockets for London renters, businesses of all sizes could begin to thrive after a hot year. “

To contact the author of this story with feedback or news, email Emily Nicolle